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Our series of analyzes on One-Match DraftKings Showdown Slates uses the current combination projections, historical game results, and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by examining the most similar historical clashes.


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In this analysis, I take the same scheme and apply it instead DFS main roster by projecting the probability that each quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and option D / ST will be the top scorer on the roster. In doing so, we can find the unlikely tournament games that may not have been on your radar.

METHODOLOGY

For every game on DFS Sunday’s main roster, I went through thousands of NFL games from 2014 to 2021 and found the closest analogies based on the following parameters: bet spread, top fantasy points / lower and middle for higher ranked position players. of the two lists (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matches for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly picking one of the 75 matches for each game. Then I find the quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D / ST on the slate.

The last step is to total up the number of times a particular team appears as the best option for the slate at each position and divide by the total number of sims. This number is what I call the “highest score%” in the bar charts below. Below the charts, I join this team’s most projected player for the job, and then list their fantasy points and projected salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

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QUARTERS

Pos Upper % Player Team DK Fpts Salary DK FD Fpts FD salary
QB 13.81 Tom brady TB 24.7 7600 22.6 8,200
QB 10.43 Jimmy garoppolo SF 19.2 5,700 17.8 6500
QB 7.80 Matt ryan ATL 20.7 5,500 19.2 7,100
QB 7.60 Justin herbert LAKE 22.5 6,600 20.9 7,800
QB 7.30 Kirk’s cousins MIN 18.1 6,300 16.8 7,500
QB 6.61 Trevor Laurent JAX 19.2 5,400 17.8 6,700
QB 6.11 Matthew Stafford THE 17.9 7,100 16.6 7,700
QB 5.03 Joe terrier CIN 20.9 6,200 19.4 7,100
QB 4.66 Jalen hurts RPS 22.3 7,300 21.0 8,400
QB 4.57 Aaron Rodgers FR 19.6 6,900 18.5 7,900
QB 4.49 Carson Wentz INDIANA 17.6 5,800 16.4 7,300
QB 3.71 Cam Newton AUTO 19.4 5,600 18.2 8,000
QB 3.63 Daniel Jones NYG 19.4 5,600 18.0 7,000
QB 3.45 Teddy Bridgewater LAIR 19.4 5,300 18.2 7,100
QB 2.93 Mac Jones BORN 18.1 5,400 17.0 6,800
QB 2.76 Ben roethlisberger PIT 16.0 5,200 14.9 6,600
QB 2.43 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 17.4 5,500 16.4 6,900
QB 2.35 Tyrod taylor HST 20.5 5,300 19.2 7,400
QB 1.57 Zach Wilson NYJ 16.7 5,100 15.7 6,200
QB 0.84 Ryan tannehill TEN 17.4 6,100 16.6 7,200

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