DFS Data Dive: Week 12 Highest Fantastic Ceilings | Fantasy Football news, rankings and screenings
Our series of analyzes on One-Match DraftKings Showdown Slates uses the current combination projections, historical game results, and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by examining the most similar historical clashes.
Click here for more PFF tools:
Rankings and projections | WR / CB Correspondence Chart | NFL and NCAA Betting Scoreboards | NFL Player Props Tool | NFL and NCAA power rankings
In this analysis, I take the same scheme and apply it instead DFS main roster by projecting the probability that each quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and option D / ST will be the top scorer on the roster. In doing so, we can find the unlikely tournament games that may not have been on your radar.
For every game on DFS Sunday’s main roster, I went through thousands of NFL games from 2014 to 2021 and found the closest analogies based on the following parameters: bet spread, top fantasy points / lower and middle for higher ranked position players. of the two lists (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).
Once I get the 75 most similar matches for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly picking one of the 75 matches for each game. Then I find the quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D / ST on the slate.
The last step is to total up the number of times a particular team appears as the best option for the slate at each position and divide by the total number of sims. This number is what I call the “highest score%” in the bar charts below. Below the charts, I join this team’s most projected player for the job, and then list their fantasy points and projected salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.
|Pos||Upper %||Player||Team||DK Fpts||Salary DK||FD Fpts||FD salary|
BACK TO THE RACE
Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading
Already have a subscription? Sign in