DFS NASCAR Research Station: DraftKings, FanDuel DFS Lineup Pick – Daytona 500
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass Package. This is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR stats that can help you identify top drivers and value plays for ideal roster builds each week. It includes historical, recent and projected statistics and loop data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best stat tools, this is your digital garage for building the DraftKings and FanDuel lineup.
Each week we’ll be featuring highlighted stat categories and games that are identified from our research station studies, but we strongly encourage you to get your hands dirty with your own comprehensive review of available stats and categories. . There’s a lot more and a much wider selection of categories than we’re highlighting here. We use DraftKings pricing as a base, but most of what we recommend here should also apply to releases in the FanDuel lineup.
Access the Research Station with the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for additional discount. We also have research stations for the Xfinity and Truck series.
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-Vegas odds from the Research Station are in DraftKings Sportsbook decimal format. Default percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on odds.
-The implied odds of winning this week are lower than other events, reflecting the highly unpredictable nature of superspeedway events. Anyone can be wrecked at any time, and we also have the Next Gen car launch to consider as well. The impact of new cars may not be felt as strongly this week as projected results are always more varied at a venue like Daytona International Speedway. But showing the Next Gen car in a real Cup race for the first time won’t make it easier to determine the prospects this week.
-Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have the highest implied odds to win the Daytona 500, both at seven percent. Even if Hamlin starts 30and, starting position shouldn’t mean much in the end and he’ll obviously be a terrific place differential target. Larson starts on pole, which means he could lead a few laps, but he never finished in the Top 5 at Daytona. If he is wrecked this week, he can instantly doom any formation with the significant loss of place differential points.
Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney are close to Hamlin and Larson in Implied Odds to win by 6%. Elliott has never won at Daytona, but he’s finished second in two of his last three races at the venue. Blaney won the second race at DIS last season and is slightly cheaper than Hamlin, Larson and Elliott at $10,000 on DraftKings. When deploying multiple lineups, I would be heavier on Hamlin and Blaney while also dusting on Elliott.
-Austin Dillon is expected to score the second most points on DraftKings this week (54.25). Dillon is still a threat to make noise on a superspeedway, and he has a huge advantage for place differential from 36and position. Dillon finished third in the Daytona 500 last season and he won “The Great American Race” in 2018. You have to give him extra serious consideration at a DK price of $8,400. Dillon should be listed at 46%, but you can vary the builds around him to differentiate your lineups while taking advantage of the waits.
-Justin Haley is expected to score 40.30 points over DK in the Daytona 500, the most of any driver priced below $8,000. It starts 25and and should finish 15and. The projections allow for a flexible range of results, so Haley could very well finish a few places above or below 15and. Haley actually won a rain-shortened race in the second race at Daytona in 2019 and he finished second at the venue in the second race last season. The research station also identified Haley’s Kaulig Racing teammate Daniel Hemric as a $7,000 value play. He is expected to score 40.25 points, from 33rd and finish in the Top 20.
Fantastic Points Earned vs. Similar Drivers
We can often identify good value games in this category. Brad Keselowski has 17.8 Fantasy Points earned against similar drivers in recent races at DIS. It won one of the Duel Thursday races and looks like a pretty good game at $8200. Keselsowski would like his season to start on the right foot as he looks to change the outlook for RFK Racing. Kesewloski hasn’t finished well at Daytona since winning the 500 in 2016, but this could be a turnaround week for him and his new team.
Driver Rating Obtained Against Similar Drivers
Driver rating is the most important loop data stat, so we review this category regularly. This metric looks at the DR achieved by a driver in a race and compares it to all other drivers historically with a similar DR throughout the season and with very similar positions. Cole Custer has a 9.3 driver rating earned over similar drivers on superspeedways. It should start on the 31stst and finish 20and with 35.35 points, which would be a good return for the $6500 price tag. Custer finished 11and in the 2020 Daytona 500 and he finished 10and and 13and at Talladega last season.
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