Dynasty Fantasy Football Strategy: 2023 Rookie Draft Picks
Editor’s note: For the second consecutive year, the DLF team has created a Dynasty Draft Guide to help you dominate your leagues, no matter the format. The Dynasty Draft Guide provides you with breakdowns of specific players you should target or avoid in 2022, but more importantly, it also contains evergreen strategy articles you can refer to even after the 2022 season is over. any of these articles below and remember that as a DLF subscriber you have access to the full guide. here.
Nothing raises the temperature of the discussion more than future rookie draft classes and how to evaluate draft picks in that given year. As we approach the 2022 rookie draft and start to see 2024 rookie draft picks now available to trade in leagues, 2023 class and pick values need their own section in the guide . Here, we discuss how to navigate the current market, how it compares to a highly touted previous class, and strategies to adopt after finding the pulse of value in your specific Dynasty League.
The Class of 2023 – An Overview
Let’s start by discussing why so many people are so excited about this class. For starters, running backs always tend to increase the value of rookie classes. Look no further than the last Shane Hallam’s 2023 Simulation Project at Project Countdown which projects four running backs in the first round, including Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs in the top fifteen picks. The last NFL draft that produced multiple top-fifteen selections for the position was in 2017, and the NFL hasn’t selected four or more running backs in the first round since 2008. There are others at the position. in the class who can rise through the ranks, including the likes of Sean Tucker, Jase McClellan, Trey Sanders, Kendall Milton, Devon Achane, MarShawn Lloyd, Jalen Berger and others as part of the much-vaunted 2020 High School Recruiting Class . The consensus top ten eligible for the Class of 2022, Zach Charbonnet and Eric Gray, have opted to return to school and the two will look to cement themselves in the mix next season. The total number in the mock draft is nine running backs through the first three rounds of the NFL Draft and with ten of the current ADP’s top 24 running backs over the age of 26 on Opening Day 2022. , now is the perfect time to add reinforcements to your dynasty rosters.
If you don’t like chasing running backs (as current mainstream strategy tends to be), quarterbacks may be the main driver of why you consider a rookie class strong. Look no further than current superflex startup ADP where up to 12 quarterbacks drop off the board before the second round ends, and that may not even include polarizing Deshaun Watson, who checked in at QB2 in ADP. the last time he played an NFL game. While you may be wondering how we can find a place at the top, teams are reeling after Ben Roethlisberger’s retirements and constant turnover in the position and many are looking to get their hands on the next Justin Herbert. or Joe Burrow. We’ve seen the Dynasty community react with conviction to Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance in 2021 and the 2023 class will be much the same. According NFL Draft Databaseearly returns have both CJ Stroud and Bryce Young as the top three picks in the 2023 NFL Draft with two other first-round picks at the position.
Former ADP QB2 devy DJ Uiagalelei also becomes eligible for the draft along with many others such as Will Levis, Kedon Slovis, Hendon Hooker and Phil Jurkovic who could have been selected in the 2022 class. We didn’t even mentioned Coastal Carolina’s Grayson McCall, Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke and Florida’s Anthony Richardson as massive upside candidates who could round out the class. While this class can be very heavy, it offers several shots at high-end players at position, with the potential for a minimum of four or five first-round picks.
One of the many common sayings over the past few seasons is that “wide receivers” don’t matter. This often gets confused with thinking that some people just don’t like the job. Not true. The reality is that the NFL is developing wide receivers at a faster rate than ever. Dynasty managers value wide receivers earlier in their careers and expect them to produce right away. The value of players who don’t return to their ADP after one or two seasons of disappointment and unfortunately for them a new crop seems to enter each season ready to jump into a coveted spot in our ADP. Over the past five seasons, 46 wide receivers have been drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft, an average of 9.1 per season. 2022 is likely to exceed that number and for 2023 the quantity looks very much on par with the current trend. Also, the 2023 WR class isn’t looking to take a back seat to solid running backs and quarterbacks, as we currently have seven who have posted at least one season (in their first two) above the line. predictive to become an NFL wide receiver. with at least one seasonal top 24 finish.
That list doesn’t even include Jermaine Burton and Parker Washington, who barely missed that mark as freshmen, and seniors Zay Flowers and Dontay Demus, who opted to go back to school. Consider it another class of wide receiver with plenty of high-end options and plenty of depth in the first two rounds of your drafts.
There isn’t much more to say about Michael Mayer. A top-fifteen pick in the class at a factory school like Notre Dame could be the icing on the cake of any dynasty rookie draft with a particular focus on the tight end. Any league with at least 1.75 points per reception or with a two starting requirement can write Mayer as another placeholder and strong profile in the first round. He posted a breakout as a sophomore and is expected to cement his draft capital with height and athleticism tests next spring.
The class of 2023 – Market values
The hardest part for individuals to understand is the market price of 2023 draft picks. After all, we just illustrated a class that could potentially go from 4-5 to quarterback (first-round NFL Draft), 5-6 from deep at running back (round one and two NFL draft picks) and 7-9 from deep at wide receiver (round 1/2 NFL Draft Picks), with a tight end in the first round. Conservatively, this pushes the depth of this class almost to the end of the second round of superflex drafts and includes extremely touted and hyped devy prospects. While much of this is speculation and is yet to be determined, the market has been hyped for this class for two years and the train isn’t going to slow down any time soon. The question becomes, have we jumped the value shark?
The Class of 2023 – Actionable Tips
Ultimately, the question you need to ask yourself today is whether the 2023 rookie picks have become too expensive. We haven’t seen many classes as highly anticipated as this one and combined with the strong fading of the 2022 class, draft picks a year later seem unobtainable. In many seasons, the team that acquires the current class pick will be charged a tax to acquire a player sooner, but that’s not necessarily the case in 2022. As noted above, the threshold has changed. already slipped into the 1.05-1.06 range, before the NFL Draft results come in. This figure continues to rise and may eventually end up in the 1.04 range.
However, compare this trend to a stock that will continue to hold for another year and at any time in a specific economy an individual trade could be liquidated at an even higher profit. Here is a view of the current 2023 pick market. In short, there are still creative ways to acquire picks and we highlight a few here:
The WR pivot
The wide receiver position is deeper than ever – this has created a talent lock at the WR2/3/4 level where production is flattening out at a much faster rate than player value. This thread discusses historical production data and why making this type of deal is simply a bet against the highest value receiver you trade not becoming the elite. In the trade above, the value absorbed in the downgrade to wide receiver is secured by removing an unwanted pick (2022 2.02) and coloring the asset down to a random first-round pick in 2023.
The 80/40 (player and choice)
These are great trades to make when trying to get future draft picks. Trade a player of a certain level (represents 100%) for another player of a lower level that you think can get closer to the one you are trading (represents 80%). Add a future draft pick (represents 40%) to the least important asset and bet your team can close the gap. The draft pick acts as insurance against a swing and a miss, but a winning bet pays out much more. You just have to be comfortable with the risk.
The Pick package
This trade assumes that all of your 2022 picks are outside the range where a direct trade for a 2023 pick can occur. Combining 1.10 and 2.04 for any random 2023 allows you to first reach an unreachable place with only one choice. In addition, this decision saves a place on the list on the road, which represents an intrinsic value not present in the calculation of the trade.
Being creative is the name of the game with the Class of 2023 since the cat is out of the bag. The majority of dynasty managers are aware of the influence of the class, even if they are not aware of all the names in it. In the end, the perception of the class matters even more than the actual players who end up in it. Playing the game of day-trading with picks means you need to have them in your wallet to move them around at the most advantageous times. You definitely don’t want to do all 2023 will tick the clock next spring, but using the weather to your advantage allows you to stockpile them, gauge their projection over the season, and combine that with your own team to determine when to cash in points to make a run. in 2022. Like it or not, these picks will be the most searched-for currency over the next twelve months and much of your off-season should focus on how to continually add them in the most creative way possible.