Fantasy Football Daily Floor & Ceiling Projections: Week 15


Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes a yaw tackle makes the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes the goal-line carriers go to the substitutes.

It happens. Many.

And, don’t get me wrong, median projections are very useful and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your rosters based on 90th percentile projections is not the right way to run things for a one-on-one roster, but if you want to know which players can open a slate then you will have to embrace it risk. .

That’s why I started faking NFL Weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played 1,000 times. Here are a few things that have appeared at each position this week, based on my simulations, which account for projections from numberFire and my own adjustments, including dynamic variance based on the underlying passing, precipitation, and reception.

Table terms

FanDuel salary (Sal): The main salary of a player on FanDuel.
Median PDF (PDF): Median FanDuel projection of a player over the 1,000 simulations on the slate.
Value (Val): Projected median FanDuel points per $ 1,000 salary. All quarterbacks typically have a rate of 2.00 FanDuel points per $ 1,000 at the bottom of the scale, which implies twice the value, or 2x value. On a full 13 game roster, around 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. Out of a full list of 13 games, a small handful of receivers can hit a 2x median throw, and just over 30 will be at 1.5x. Out of a comprehensive list of 13 games, a few tight ends will hit a midpoint of 2x, and anything above 1.5x is usually a top six projection. It is important to understand the different value expectations between positions.
25th pct (25 pct): Projection of the FanDuel point at the player’s 25th percentile, intended to show a low-end (or floor) result. Each player’s true floor is zero.
75th pct (75 pct): Projection of the FanDuel point at the player’s 75th percentile, intended to show a somewhat attainable / projectable high-end (or ceiling) result without simply looking at true outliers.
FDP% (x +%): The frequency with which a player has exceeded a certain gross projection threshold, intended to show a gross ceiling result. It does not adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom / bust ratio (boom / bust): The frequency with which a player has had a “boom” game versus a “bust” game based on historical value results based on position. For quarterbacks, this measures games with a value of 2.75x compared to games with a value worse than 2x. For running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, it’s 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple assessment of the floor versus the ceiling. The higher the better, and they should only be compared within the same position.

Strategist

Josh allen $ 8,700 24.4 2.81 18.8 30.5 47.1% 2.50
Kyler murray $ 8,800 23.7 2.69 17.9 29.1 43.3% 1.97
Dak prescott $ 7,500 20.1 2.68 14.5 25.0 25.2% 1.75
Aaron Rodgers $ 7,600 19.8 2.61 14.5 24.5 23.1% 1.53
Tua Tagovailoa $ 7,400 19.1 2.59 13.8 24.3 22.1% 1.53
Jimmy garoppolo $ 6,700 17.3 2.59 12.4 22.3 14.5% 1.53
Ryan tannehill $ 7,000 16.8 2.39 11.0 21.2 13.8% 0.93
Joe terrier $ 7,300 16.4 2.24 11.0 21.1 10.7% 0.73
Teddy bridgewater $ 6,600 15.8 2.39 10.9 20.3 9.9% 1.01
Cam Newton $ 6,900 15.5 2.24 10.2 20.4 10.3% 0.75
Lamar jackson $ 7,700 15.3 1.99 10.7 20.1 8.1% 0.41
Ben roethlisberger $ 6,600 15.2 2.30 10.3 19.9 7.7% 0.86
Trevor Laurent $ 6,500 14.7 2.27 9.9 20.6 11.4% 0.90
Matt ryan $ 6,500 14.0 2.15 9.1 18.5 6.1% 0.61
Davis Mills $ 6,800 13.6 2.01 8.6 18.6 5.3% 0.50
Mike glennon $ 6,700 13.4 2.00 8.5 17.8 5.1% 0.44
Zach Wilson $ 6,500 12.8 1.97 7.5 17.6 6.1% 0.46
Jared goff $ 6,400 12.5 1.96 7.8 17.1 3.3% 0.44
Tyler huntley $ 6,400 12.3 1.92 7.2 17.1 4.2% 0.42

To recover

Najee harris $ 8,800 15.7 1.78 10.4 21.6 30.7% 1.15
James robinson $ 6,300 14.6 2.32 9.2 20.1 25.2% 2.35
Saquon Barkley $ 7,300 14.1 1.93 8.7 19.5 22.7% 1.37
Ezekiel Elliott $ 6,700 14.0 2.09 9.0 19.5 23.8% 1.75
Cordarrelle Patterson $ 7,000 13.6 1.94 8.1 18.6 20.7% 1.34
Joe mixon $ 8,300 13.2 1.59 7.9 18.2 18.9% 0.67
James conner $ 8,000 13.0 1.62 7.9 17.9 18.3% 0.74
Myles Gaskin $ 6,600 12.6 1.91 7.2 17.3 14.6% 1.28
Melvin gordon $ 7,000 12.4 1.78 7.3 16.9 13.0% 1.01
Aaron Jones $ 7,500 12.3 1.64 7.4 16.9 12.9% 0.79
Javonte williams $ 7,000 11.7 1.67 7.6 16.5 12.7% 0.91
Michael carter $ 5,900 11.7 1.98 7.0 16.7 13.5% 1.47
Devonta Freeman $ 5,900 11.3 1.91 6.1 16.4 11.8% 1.24
AJ Dillon $ 7,500 10.7 1.43 6.3 15.1 9.2% 0.48
David johnson $ 5,500 10.4 1.88 5.9 15.0 7.2% 1.22
Chase edmonds $ 6,500 9.4 1.45 4.3 14.5 5.8% 0.62
Tony pollard $ 5,800 8.7 1.51 4.4 13.2 4.8% 0.66
Devin Singletary $ 5,400 8.7 1.62 3.7 13.6 5.9% 0.82
Chuba hubbard $ 6,000 8.6 1.44 4.2 12.1 2.6% 0.48
Foreman of Onta $ 5,800 8.3 1.44 3.9 12.5 3.1% 0.57
Jamaal williams $ 6,000 8.2 1.36 3.4 12.6 3.8% 0.52
By André Swift $ 7,200 7.9 1.10 3.2 12.3 3.9% 0.23
Royce Freeman $ 5,200 7.7 1.49 3.4 11.7 2.6% 0.65
Mike davis $ 5,600 7.4 1.32 3.2 11.7 2.0% 0.49
Elie Mitchell $ 7,800 7.4 0.94 3.5 11.0 1.3% 0.09
Ameer Abdallah $ 4,900 6.6 1.34 2.2 10.9 1.6% 0.56
Jeff Wilson $ 5,800 6.2 1.07 1.8 10.2 1.4% 0.28
Dontrell Hilliard $ 5,200 6.2 1.19 2.0 10.6 1.1% 0.44
Jeremy mcnichols $ 5,300 5.8 1.09 1.7 10.0 1.3% 0.34
Matt Breida $ 5,300 5.5 1.04 1.5 9.5 0.9% 0.30
Craig reynolds $ 5,300 5.5 1.03 1.5 9.5 0.5% 0.27
Salvon Ahmed $ 5,400 5.2 0.97 1.1 9.3 1.2% 0.27
Godwin Igwebuike $ 5,000 4.9 0.98 1.4 8.3 0.2% 0.25
Ty johnson $ 5,400 4.6 0.85 0.9 8.5 0.2% 0.19
Devontae Booker $ 5,400 4.5 0.84 0.6 8.4 0.4% 0.17
Jermar Jefferson $ 5,000 4.3 0.86 0.8 8.0 0.1% 0.19
Samaje Perine $ 5,200 4.0 0.76 0.3 8.3 0.4% 0.19

Wide receiver

Davante Adams $ 8,500 17.6 2.07 12.5 22.9 38.3% 2.05
Deebo Samuel $ 8,200 16.0 1.95 12.7 19.4 22.1% 2.02
Stefon Diggs $ 7,800 14.8 1.90 9.9 19.2 21.5% 1.32
Diontae johnson $ 7,200 14.1 1.96 10.1 18.7 19.9% 1.64
CeeDee Lamb $ 7,400 12.9 1.74 8.5 17.6 15.8% 0.98
Ja’Marr Chase $ 7,500 12.3 1.65 7.2 17.7 15.1% 0.83
In front of Parker $ 5,800 12.1 2.08 7.1 16.6 11.7% 1.66
Amari Cooper $ 7,000 11.4 1.62 7.3 15.3 6.3% 0.77
Higgins T-shirt $ 6,800 11.2 1.64 6.8 15.7 9.7% 0.85
Brandin cooks $ 6,900 11.1 1.61 6.6 15.6 8.9% 0.78
Christian kirk $ 6,000 11.0 1.83 6.8 14.8 5.5% 1.16
Dj moore $ 6,600 10.6 1.61 5.6 15.5 10.2% 0.75
Brandon Aïyuk $ 6,600 10.5 1.58 6.1 14.6 4.9% 0.72
Marquise Brown $ 6,700 10.0 1.49 4.7 14.4 8.2% 0.60
Chase claypool $ 6,400 9.6 1.50 5.3 14.2 5.0% 0.62
AJ Green $ 5,700 9.5 1.66 5.4 13.7 4.5% 0.88
Amon-Ra St. Brown $ 5,900 9.5 1.60 5.2 13.3 4.0% 0.73
Julio Jones $ 6,000 9.4 1.57 5.5 13.7 4.6% 0.73
Cole beasley $ 5,800 9.3 1.61 5.5 12.9 2.0% 0.71
Michael gallup $ 5,900 9.3 1.57 5.4 13.7 5.9% 0.75
Marvin jones $ 5,700 8.8 1.55 5.0 13.0 2.8% 0.71
Russell gage $ 6,000 8.8 1.47 5.4 12.7 2.3% 0.57
Laviska Shenault $ 5,400 8.8 1.62 5.6 11.7 0.3% 0.74
Jerry Jeudy $ 6,100 8.7 1.43 5.1 13.2 3.3% 0.58
Gabriel Davis $ 4,900 8.3 1.69 4.4 12.1 3.0% 0.93
Sterling shepard $ 5,600 8.2 1.47 4.8 12.1 1.3% 0.59
Kenny golladay $ 5,400 8.2 1.52 3.7 13.0 4.0% 0.71
Jamison crowder $ 5,700 7.8 1.36 4.4 11.2 1.1% 0.41
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $ 5,500 7.7 1.40 3.2 12.1 3.6% 0.58
Rondale Moore $ 5,500 7.5 1.36 5.1 9.8 0.0% 0.26
Allen Lazard $ 5,300 7.3 1.39 3.8 10.9 0.7% 0.50
Tyler boyd $ 5,700 7.2 1.27 4.1 10.3 0.3% 0.32
Courtland sutton $ 5,600 7.2 1.28 3.0 10.9 1.4% 0.40
Robby anderson $ 5,800 7.1 1.23 2.7 11.0 1.8% 0.36
Tim patrick $ 5,500 7.1 1.28 3.4 10.5 0.5% 0.39
Josh reynolds $ 5,100 7.0 1.38 2.9 11.0 1.1% 0.54
Laquon Treadwell $ 5,100 6.9 1.36 3.2 10.1 0.3% 0.44
Nico collins $ 5,300 6.3 1.20 3.2 9.4 0.3% 0.30
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $ 5,300 6.3 1.19 3.7 9.1 0.1% 0.24
Rashod bateman $ 5,800 6.1 1.05 2.7 9.7 0.5% 0.20
Keelan cole $ 5,000 5.9 1.18 2.7 9.4 0.2% 0.34
Albert Wilson $ 5,000 5.9 1.17 3.0 9.6 0.3% 0.36
Braxton Berrios $ 5,300 5.6 1.05 2.5 8.9 0.2% 0.24
Darius slayton $ 5,000 5.2 1.03 1.1 9.5 0.9% 0.36
Antoine wesley $ 4,700 4.7 1.00 1.4 7.8 0.0% 0.20
Tajae sharpe $ 4,900 4.1 0.84 1.4 7.1 0.0% 0.14
Brandon zylstra $ 5,000 4.1 0.82 1.2 6.5 0.0% 0.08
Ray-ray mccloud $ 5,000 4.1 0.81 2.2 6.2 0.0% 0.04

Tight end

George kittle $ 7,800 13.5 1.74 9.6 18.1 41.7% 0.98
Marc Andrews $ 7,400 10.1 1.37 5.8 15.4 26.4% 0.50
Mike Gesicki $ 6,200 10.1 1.63 5.5 14.7 23.0% 0.85
Kyle pitts $ 5,800 9.0 1.54 4.1 13.3 17.4% 0.72
Dawson knox $ 6,500 8.8 1.36 5.2 12.7 12.3% 0.40
Zach Ertz $ 5,300 8.6 1.62 5.5 12.3 12.8% 0.78
Noah Fan $ 5,600 7.4 1.32 3.6 10.9 6.1% 0.40
Dalton schultz $ 5,600 6.8 1.22 3.3 10.2 3.8% 0.29
Pat Freiermuth $ 5,300 6.3 1.18 3.2 9.4 3.3% 0.27
Evan engram $ 5,000 5.4 1.08 2.0 8.5 2.8% 0.26
CJ Ouzomah $ 5,100 5.2 1.03 2.3 8.4 1.5% 0.20
Brevin Jordan $ 4,900 5.2 1.06 2.0 8.8 2.2% 0.29
Albert Okwuegbunam $ 5,200 4.5 0.86 1.3 7.3 0.6% 0.10
Anthony Firkser $ 4,700 4.0 0.86 0.7 7.1 0.6% 0.15
Eric Ebron $ 4,800 1.5 0.32 0.0 4.3 0.3% 0.03


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