Fantasy Football dynasty report for week 5
Welcome to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
We’ve been in the season for four weeks already, which means we’re finally getting a clearer picture of the fantastic landscape. DJ Moore is in the middle of a career year, while Cordarrelle Patterson just might be an every week starter for your dynasty teams. Hopefully, as Week 5 approaches, you’re on your way to making the fantastic playoffs. Otherwise, don’t panic yet. We still have several weeks of football left for you to turn your season around! Stay engaged, continue exchanges and stay active on the tie-up to put yourself in the best position to compete in the dynasty playoffs!
As always, I will be highlighting some of the dynasty’s ascendants and descendants in the form of a dynasty stocks report. Hope this article can be a great resource on your journey to a #FootclanTitle dynasty. In addition to the Dynasty Stock report, I will provide you with an updated recruiting opportunities dashboard (market share, red zone stats, etc.) each week along with one of the following topics:
- Dynasty Strategy
- Breakdown of 2022 outlook
- Dynasty caches
Recruitment Opportunities Dashboard: Week 4
Below is a summary of how each rookie has performed over the past week. Monday Night Football matches may be initially excluded but will be added as data becomes available. For reference:
- Fantasy points expected is a value calculated based on a player’s use in their offense. The more valuable opportunities they receive (deep targets, red zone opportunities, etc.), the higher their expected value will be.
- FPOE means Fantasy points more than expected and signifies efficiency in relation to the use of a player. FPOE is the difference between a player’s actual PPR points and their expected PPR value.
- Red zone opportunities include targets and rush attempts. For quarterbacks, attempted passes are also included.
If there are any specific metrics you would like me to include, or if a recruit has been kicked out, let me know on Twitter. @FF_MarvinE.
Some observations of rookies from week 4:
- Trey Lance was by far the most effective rookie QB, scoring 11.7 points ABOVE expected. Yes, this is due in part to Deebo Samuel’s 76-yard touchdown pass against a broken cover. Either way, due to his rushed floor, his potential is huge as a fantastic QB.
- Kenneth Gainwell ranks as my RB9 in week 4 in expected PPR points. Despite the heavy use, he still played OVER 3.7 PPR points expected.
- Kyle Pitts continues to dominate in use, ranking as my TE2 for the week in expected PPR points (19.2).
- Kadarius Toney finally had his chance with an impressive 15.9 expected value of the PPR and a target share of 25%.
Dynasty Stock Report
Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers, WR
At the start of the season, Dynasty managers (myself included) were waiting for a reminder of Brandon Aiyuk’s rookie year and another dominant season from George Kittle. However, to start the year, Deebo Samuel was the indisputable primary receiver of Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Over the course of four games, he impressively leads the 49ers in several receiving metrics including target share and yardage share. Compared to the rest of the league, Samuel is currently the:
- WR9 in targets per game (10.2)
- WR1 in receiving yards per game (122.5)
- WR1 in yards after catch per game (67.5)
- WR6 in Weighted Opportunity Score (0.76)
Plus, to put his productive start into perspective, we’ve only seen 26 wide receivers from 2010-2020 start their first four games with at least 400 receiving yards and 40 targets. Of those 26, 80.7% finished the year with an average WR1 numbers per game while 96% finished their season as one of the top 24 receivers. In other words, based on historical production, Deebo’s debut is expected to be a continued fantastic success, with a very high probability that a WR1 will remain for the rest of the year. As a Dynasty Manager, keep Samuel as I expect his Dynasty value to improve significantly by the end of the year, especially with Trey Lance scheduled to start as early as this week.
Deebo Samuel is IN! @ 49ers reduce the feed to 7 with 1:20 on the left.
– NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2021
Ty’Son Williams – Baltimore Ravens, RB
The Ravens’ backfield has been marred with injuries, opening the doors for players like Ty’Son Williams and Latavius Murray to play a bigger role. In his limited opportunities, Williams has been quite productive, especially in the first two games of the season. Against the Raiders and Chiefs, he had 28 chances, scoring once and totaling 187 yards on an effective 6.7 yards per touchdown. He also led the Ravens backfield in both team opportunity share (23%) and rush share (31%) during that span. Despite their productive start to the year, Baltimore decided to limit their opportunities in the last two games, resulting in a good scratch in Week 4. In fact, against the Broncos, the Ravens decided to rely on three. running backs over 28 years old. instead of Williams.
Perhaps that could indicate that JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards will likely lead that backfield next year once they come back healthy from their respective injuries. And given that Le’Veon Bell, DeVonta Freeman and Latavius Murray are all short-term options for this team, it’s even more concerning that Williams won’t be able to break the rotation for the Ravens. As Dynasty Managers, we probably missed our window to trade Williams at maximum value. For now, he still deserves a place on your Dynasty Squads, at least until we see the effectiveness of this new backfield rotation in the weeks to come.
DJ Moore – Carolina Panthers, WR
Fun fact: DJ Moore is one of two players that I entered in all the leagues in my dynasty. Therefore, I am absolutely delighted to finally be able to write about him in this segment after an impressive start to the season. In his first three years in the league, we got a glimpse of his potential, totaling over 200 PPR points and ranking in the top 30 in scores per game in his last two seasons. The biggest hurdle for Moore has always been his touchdown efficiency, scoring just 10 times out of 356 opportunities to start his career. However, in his fourth year, his connection with Darnold elevated him to WR1 territory. In the first four weeks of the season, Moore ranks:
- WR5 in targets per game (10.8)
- WR4 in receiving yards per game (99.5)
- WR11 in Air Yards per game (109.2)
- WR5 in PPR points per game (22.4)
Additionally, as you can see in the table below, Moore usage (expected PPR value) has improved every week. Equally important, as the green bars below show, he also met or exceeded his expected value in every game. And while some weeks are more effective than others, if he continues to dominate Red Zone goals and opportunities for Carolina, expect Moore to maintain his WR1 production. And at just 24 years old, the Moore Dynasty stock will only get better as the season progresses, especially if Darnold continues to rely on him as the primary receiver on this team.
Adam Trautman – Saints of New Orleans, TE
After a somewhat promising start to the season in which he received a target 30% share against Green Bay, Trautman has slowly vanished into the dark abyss of the tight landscape over the past three weeks. During that span, Trautman averaged an instantaneous 63.7% share while receiving just two opportunities for a total of three receiving yards. Part of his lack of opportunity is due to the offensive struggles of the Saints. Outside of their extremely effective game against the Packers, over the past three weeks, New Orleans ranks 26th in total plays (170), 29th in yards per play (4.6) and 31st in yards per play (4.6). attempted passes (69). Simply put, there is very little volume to support multiple fantasy-relevant players in this offense.
In addition, Juwan Johnson has been the most productive tight end of the Saints’ offense. While he averaged only 23.5% of snaps, he leads New Orleans in receiving touchdowns (3) and is tied with Kamara for the team’s first place in the targets of the red zone (3). And with the return of Michael Thomas later this year, I expect Trautman’s lack of goals to continue as the season progresses. At this point, Trautman could be considered droppable, especially if a tight end like Dan Arnold or Maxx Williams is still available on waivers in your dynasty leagues.
The value of a draft pick
One of the most common questions I get from new dynasty players is how to assess draft picks and when to trade them during the year. Naturally, draft picks are one of the dynasty’s most valuable assets. Unlike players who might lose value due to their ecosystem or an unfortunate injury, draft picks will keep or improve their stock over time. Therefore, as a rebuilding team, it makes perfect sense to swap players that don’t fit your Dynasty window for rookie picks. Keep in mind, however, that the choices are far from guaranteed. If you read my first Dynasty Report of the season, I pointed out how rare it is for recruits to produce right out of college. As a result, proven talents should always be charged a higher price, which usually comes at the cost of multiple first-round picks. If you’re trading for a player like Stefon Diggs, expect at least two first-round rookie picks to be involved in the deal.
If you’re looking to acquire first-round picks for the next Rookie Draft, the best time to trade them is now. As the season progresses, the value of a Dynasty pick will only increase, especially as we get closer to our Rookie Draft. In fact, this is also true for second and third round picks, as some prospects are gaining ground and Dynasty Managers look to get them back at a mid-round value. Conversely, older veteran players have the highest value during the season, especially for a competitor. Therefore, if you are looking to maximize the value of an older Adam Thielen or Leonard Fournette, now is a great time to contact those suitors to see if they are ready to part with the interim capital for a production. immediate. And whether you decide to keep the pick or trade it in a few months, trading for picks when their value is at their lowest during the season will pay dividends early in the draft season.