Historical trends point to Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Justin Jefferson

If you participate in a DFS tournament or a 50/50 competition for NFL Pro Bowl Sunday unique game slate between AFC and NFC, then you have come to the right place. We scoured dozens of potential game scripts to arrive at the most likely scenarios and how those scenarios would impact fantasy football performances. Here’s our recommended NFL Pro Bowl DFS lineup, with the picks based on DraftKings prize money.

Top NFL Pro Bowl DFS DraftKings picks for AFC vs. NFC | Strategy

Assessing player production in the final week of the regular season invites extraordinary challenges. Who will sit? Who will go out after the first quarter? Which backups will be forced to scale, and will any of them thrive?

On the one hand, assessing the production of Pro Bowl players is even more difficult. Players enter and exit at each position. The average quarterback can throw 8 to 12 times. Ball carriers usually do not gain more than 4-6 touches. etc In a sense, we’re rolling the dice to see who will or could score that big, scoring play.

But by looking at various DFS lineups for this year’s Pro Bowl, we determined a path to optimize the upside, and it relies on wides and tight ends. For example, the top six fantasy producers in the last Pro Bowl (2020) were WRs and TEs. In the past five Pro Bowls, QBs have thrown 26 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions. The only RB to have more than 10 fantastic points in the last four Pro Bowls was guard Anthony Sherman.

Yes, Anthony Sherman.

WRs and TEs have thrived in recent Pro Bowls

Our money this weekend is on WRs and TEs. The data shows that while they are booming, their boom is unquestionably higher than QBs and RBs. If you’re using DFS 50/50 slates, six receivers offer a fantastic hedge. If you play DFS tournaments, you might get lucky starting a QB who scores on his first two drives. But QBs rarely run in the Pro Bowls. They have about 15 to 20 pieces to produce. We always recommend going all-in on receivers.

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Finally, do we choose WRs or TEs, or both? In the past five Pro Bowls, the WRs have caught 12 TD passes, while the TEs have caught 11. During that streak, nine WRs have passed for more than 70 receiving yards, compared to six TEs. This narrow disparity between elite performing WRs and TEs informs our DFS decisions.

Top NFL Pro Bowl DFS DraftKings picks for AFC vs. NFC | FCA

This part of the PFN DFS Pro Bowl lineup assumes both AFC tight ends pick up where they left off at the end of their respective seasons. It also assumes big plays from the most electric AFC playing today.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,200)

Tyreek Hill has unfinished business. The Chiefs exited the playoffs earlier than expected. In contrast, in three Pro Bowls, he only had 5 catches for 50 yards. Nonetheless, his best performance came in the only appearance of Patrick Mahomes. In a team lacking in monster players, Hill arguably has the most upside.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,400)

This season, Travis Kelce had his lowest catch rate since 2017. Still, he dominated the stretch, shaking off 81% of targets since Week 15 and scoring in every game over that span. Like his high-flying teammate featured above, Kelce is a staple in DFS. It helps that he’s seen the end zone 3 times in his last two Pro Bowl outings.

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens ($6,000) ($9,000 in captaincy slot)

Fantasy’s No. 1 tight end led all AFC Fantasy producers in his lone Pro Bowl appearance (2020), compiling a 9-73-1 receiving line. While more than 50% of his numbers came with Lamar Jackson at QB, Andrews continued to rack up catches and yards when Deshaun Watson took his turn under center. Baltimore’s (and Fantasy’s) TE hero poses a threat to defenses every game. If you have a captain slot, Andrews belongs there.

Top NFL Pro Bowl DFS DraftKings picks for AFC vs. NFC | NFC

This part of the lineup assumes that three of the top four active NFC expanders meet or exceed expectations. Can they help turn this DFS list into a winner?

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers ($8,600)

Deebo Samuel scores from all over the field, both as running back and receiver. Simply put, few NFL players can do what he does. In the regular season, he was No. 2 in the league in yards after the catch. We think NFC quarterbacks will look to him more than anyone else.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings ($8,000)

This will be Justin Jefferson’s first of 10 Pro Bowls, and that’s no exaggeration. Possibly the No. 1 fantasy WR of the Dynasty, Jefferson should deserve plenty of looks, especially with Kirk Cousins ​​under center for a quarter or more.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,600)

Strong arguments could be made for TEs George Kittle or Kyle Pitts. But we’re going with one of the best keepers of the past eight years – a 28-year-old still in his prime on his way to NFL immortality if health and desire last another 6-8 seasons. In the aftermath of Tom Brady’s retirement — and amid confusion over his franchise’s near-term direction (win now or rebuild) — Evans remains the one constant. He is a brilliant receiver who thrives on the biggest stages.

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