NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: DuraMAX Drydene 400
If you’re looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR can be a great avenue to explore. Far from just circling around, some of the best in the world go head-to-head almost every weekend from February through November at tracks across America. NASCAR drivers are ultimately rated based on how they finish the race, how many places they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who drop out of the race is a must, though!
With all that in mind, let’s see a preview of the DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway on FanDuel.
|Practice||Saturday April 30
10:30 a.m. EST
|Qualification||Saturday April 30
11:05 a.m. EST
We’re back to early season vibes in NASCAR DFS this weekend.
Dover, as a high-banked, one-mile oval, is a unique format that really isn’t represented in what we’ve seen in this next-gen car so far.
All the short tracks (Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville) have been flat…or dirt. All major banked tracks (Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta) draw ovals.
We will have to be totally malleable depending on who is fast in training. Luckily, this race track has always been one where the practice times correlated well with its strongest cars on Sunday.
In the last practice spring race in 2019, Martin Truex Jr. finished second in final practice and won the race. That fall, Kyle Larson was fastest in final practice and won the race.
Saturday’s practice is so much more important than my ranking in this assist.
General composition strategy
With 400 laps on the schedule, we will want to prioritize two or three places in our lineup towards cars that can dominate and potentially win the race. That’s 40 points available for rounds conducted on FanDuel.
In the only race of 2021 here, Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman combined to lead 361 of the 400 total laps. This type of split is very possible on Sunday.
With on-deck practice and qualifying, you’ll know the best candidates to lead laps based on their practice speeds and the fastest cars should start from the start.
That said, if a car stands out in practice and it don’t start near the front, you can still use them; just be sure to use a car starting closer to the front to lead until they head into first.
For the value options that underpin them, feel free to use options that can provide a differential place advantage. Daniel Suarez and Cole Custer made the perfect line-up last year at Dover starting 24th and 30th respectively. It was in an aero package less conducive to overtaking than this one as well.
Below is my pre-qualifying ranking for each driver based on gear, track history, recent form and overall skill level in that order. Only pilots with a victory probability greater than 0% were included.
Because this track is so unique, instead of a mid-lap time sample this week, a lot of the determination for this week was made from pre-Dover history. Therefore, a ranking of historical Dover points earned places drivers with recent track appearance in terms of total points over the last six races here.
For dominator viability, the driver is ranked from 0 to 10 on a scale allowing him to potentially lead laps and win the race if he starts ahead. A “10” is among the favorites to win the race, and a “0” has no realistic chance of leading the race at any time.
For flexible game viability, the driver is ranked from 0 to 10 on a scale to finish in terms of potential to finish in the top 15 places. These drivers will be better the daily fantasy plays farther into the field than they start for optimal place differential points.
|$6,800||N / A||2||7|
|$4,000||N / A||0||4|
|27|| A J
|$3,500||N / A||0||3|
|$2,500||N / A||0||2|
|$4,000||N / A||0||0|
It will be very interesting to see how Kyle Larson ($14,000) is, and it may depend on his practice speed.
Larson hasn’t had near the same level of dominance he had in 2021, posting just 1 win and 118 laps led in 10 races so far. That said, even his move to a lesser outfit in 2019 shows he’s the man to beat at Dover right now. As well as leading a record 263 laps at last year’s event, Larson finished in the top two at both races in 2019.
Until we see how it shakes, I’ll put Chase Elliott ($13,500) above William Byron ($13,000). Elliott has four top-five finishes in the last six races at Dover, but both – and Alex Bowman ($12,500) – are viable due to Hendrick Motorsports historical dominance of this track.
For a “racehorse”, Kevin Harvick ($10,000) has seven consecutive top-10 finishes at Dover, including the 2020 and 2021 editions in which Harvick’s outfit has been significantly slower. Considering Harvick has sped up at Phoenix and Richmond — two of his other top tracks — in 2022, I have a feeling he’ll be a threat on Sunday.
Among the previous winners in 2022, Chase Briscoe ($8,500) would be my favorite. He picked up a win in the Xfinity Series here in 2020. Ross Chastain ($9,000) and Tyler Reddick ($8,800) have only one top 10 combined in their last seven starts at Dover, and none have cracked the Xfinity Series.
Surprisingly, Ryan Blaney ($12,000) has not finished in the top 10 in its last six races at Dover. He’s been so quick all over the place in 2022 that I can’t scratch him yet, but I certainly won’t be able to ignore the slow practice speeds and include him in my driver pool if he struggles until Saturday.
I’m optimistic for both Kurt Busch ($7,000) and Bubba Wallace ($5,500) considering Wallace finished 11th here last year for 23XII Racing. Busch has three top-10 finishes in his last seven tries at Dover, so he might also be able to finish in the top 12.
For other value sets, Daniel Suarez ($7,200), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,800), Erik Jones ($5,000), and Cole Custer ($4,500) each have a pair of top 10s in the last six races at Dover. Jones is particularly interesting given that he has displayed excellent speed this season and scored five top-15 finishes.