Player accessories to bet for the 2022 NFL season (Fantasy Football)

Over the past two weeks, DraftKings Sportsbook has released arguably the largest single-season player prop menu in the industry, creating a huge opportunity for fantasy players and gamers to make a decent profit on the softest betting market there is in NFL: Season Long Player Totals. Before we dive into the specific bets I’m making for the 2022 season, let’s talk about some basic strategy in this market.

4for4’s Connor Allen recently tweeted a thread on last season’s prop results. Its data shows overwhelming support for underlying player prop bets from a one-season perspective. He found that 66.6% of passing, rushing and receiving props hit last season, and while that might change a bit from year to year, there’s no doubt that on a sample over several years, unders will hit at a much higher rate than overs. . Why is that? There are many things that can go wrong for a player during an 18-game regular season.

Here are a few:

  • Injuries are coming to the NFL – it’s just a fact, especially at the position of RB. We will be looking for under bets for full backs as it is rare for a full back to play all 17 games. Most will miss 2-3 minimum based on historical numbers.
  • Teammates are running out of time – If a starting QB goes down, that whole offense is likely to suffer, especially a WR, whose target quality could be negatively affected. Likewise, if one or more starting offensive linemen fall, the effectiveness of the running back could suffer.
  • Coaching and diet change- These can alter a player’s usage (targets, ranges, etc.)

For an overrun to reach the outlook for a season, everything has to go well. There is no doubt that unders are the way to go if you are looking to profit from this market. Be sure to shop online for the best odds if you have access to multiple books to always grab the best number and the best odds!

For this article I looked directly at Andy, Mike and Jason High end screenings in the Ultimate Draft Kit and compared them to Vegas odds, then added some context around the projection and associated bet. Be sure to bookmark this page and check back frequently as I’ll be adding more throughout the offseason. Good luck with all your bets!

*Lines correct at time of publication*

1. Mike Gesicki U625.5 Receiving yards (+100)

Ballers average projection: 655 yards
Analysis: Mike Gesicki quietly had a very solid season for Miami last year, operating primarily as the No. 2 wide receiver in that offense behind Jaylen Waddle. However, a lot has changed in a year. The Dolphins have a new coaching staff that is likely to prioritize running and a lower average target depth. Now, Gesicki will certainly overtake Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill in the Dolphins passing game. All three Ballers have forecast Gesicki at least 15-20 fewer receptions than a year ago, and we know that TEs in general outside of the top 55 are unreliable for consistent production. Despite our projection showing a slight over, let’s take the penny at par.

2. Skyy Moore U680.5 Receiving yards (-115)

Want to read the rest of this article?

Get the Ultimate DFS Pass from The Fantasy Footballers for instant access. The Ultimate DFS Pass 2022 is now available as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit+. Expert advice, weekly selections, premium reports, reliable and award-winning weekly resources.

Get the Ultimate Draft Kit+

Already have UDK+? You have the DFS Pass! Log in to access

Comments are closed.