Week 5 Monday evening (Colts at Ravens)


Two teams from last season’s playoffs face off Monday night to cap Week 5. The Indianapolis Colts, fresh off a season-saving win, travel to Baltimore to visit the Ravens 3-1. Can Colts defense slow down Lamar Jackson, or will the Ravens’ new success in the air propel them to a fourth victory?

For those unfamiliar with one-game football slates on FanDuel feature five positional flex points with the same score as the main slate. However, the list building instead features an “MVP” slot along with four flexible slots. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, which makes this spot crucial for balancing the floor and ceiling for optimal composition of the roster.

With that in mind, let’s preview the list of matches between Indianapolis and Baltimore on FanDuel.

Play environment

While public sentiment supports the Ravens quite strongly, the Colts are just seven-point underdogs for the game. The total in the game is a paltry 46.5 points, but that’s largely because Baltimore and Indianapolis rank 28th and 29th respectively in terms of neutral pace. Therefore, FanDuel Points should be valuable.

The numberFire model sits largely on this one. He has a slight conviction of a star of over 46.5 points, with the game exceeding that projection 56.1% of the time. This still does not mean to expect points in clusters.

The key injuries to watch out for for the skill pieces are exclusively on the Indianapolis side – trust me, the Ravens are more than good there overall. Carson Wentz completed a full workout on Wednesday and should be ready to start again with his ankles sprained. Nyheim Hines is of greater concern because it is questionable with a shoulder injury. Hines’ absence from the contest would allow more work for Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack.

Here is some key information and team leaders to know before the competition on both teams:

Statistical Foals Ravens
Passage of expected net points
By return
Carson Wentz (0.08) Lamar Jackson (0.21)
Rush NEP by portage Jonathan Taylor (0.13) Ty’Son Williams (0.28)
CIP reception by target Zach Pascal (0.64) Sammy Watkins (0.71)
Mark Andrews (0.71)
Adjusted team total
Defensive NEP per play
0.12 0.05
RB Adjusted Opportunities
(Door Plus 2x Targets)
By game
Jonathan Taylor (21.5) Latavius ​​Murray (11.0)
To rush
Success rate
Jonathan Taylor (46.7%) Lamar Jackson (50.0%)
Routes executed% Michael Pittman Jr. (96.1%) Sammy Watkins (84.4%)
Target share% Michael Pittman Jr. (26.3%) Sammy Watkins (25.0%)
Aerial work sites% Michael Pittman Jr. (39.9%) Marquise Brun (32.2%)
High leverage
Targets per game
Michael Pittman Jr. (5.0) Marquise Brown (4.3)

Choice of players

MVP Considerations

Lamar Jackson ($ 17,000): The most important decision making is whether Jackson’s high salary is worth it. With a string of injuries in the backfield, Jackson was Baltimore’s most consistent ground option on top of his 0.28 NEP per recoil. His 69.8 rushing yards lead the team, and he’s just one point behind the red zone (6) behind Latavius ​​Murray’s team record. This ability to sum up both rushed play and passing play for the favorite Ravens seems invaluable in a five-player, one-game draft format, and it’s worth it.

Jonathan Taylor ($ 13,000): Especially if Hines were to miss this contest, Jonathan Taylor seems like the best place to attack a “The Colts Are Competitive” strategy. Taylor has had some really bad luck in a decent fantasy outing so far. He has 18 red zone runs in four games, but he only has one rushing touchdown to show. Baltimore is no longer an outlier clash for the running backs (0.02 adjusted defensive NEP per run), which puts Taylor fully on the line in a space where Indianapolis would prefer not to drop Carson Wentz 50 times in the pressure rate. of Baltimore’s 32% team.

FLEX priorities

Carson Wentz ($ 14,000): In a game where he is expected to lag behind, Wentz’s improved play may justify a reduced quarterback salary for a single-game format. Wentz’s passing 0.08 NEP per setback is much improved from his mark of -0.12 a year ago with Philadelphia, but still remains below the NFL average. The problem, as pointed out with Taylor, is that the Colts are clearly trying to limit his passing volume when possible. Wentz hasn’t eclipsed 40 setbacks or 300 passing yards this season. The Ravens’ pass defense is above par (0.07 recoil-adjusted defensive pass NEP), and that probably doesn’t make it where it overshadows those marks, either.

Mark Andrews ($ 12,000): Andrews’ historical downside seems to be gone. He used to play limited snaps purely as a pass catcher, but playing 74.0% of Baltimore’s snaps and running 82.2% of the team’s routes virtually eliminated those issues. Andrews has only seen three red zone targets in four games and has yet to find the end zone this season, but that should change. Andrews saw 20 red zone looks (tied for 13th in the NFL in 2020) and scored 4 touchdowns last year.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($ 11,000): If it weren’t for playing inside the Colts’ slow and mediocre offense, Pittman’s market share would be some of the most coveted in fantasy football. Pittman has a target share of 26.3% while running 96.3% of total Indianapolis team routes. He was also effective on them, as his receiving NEP of 0.60 per target is a solid rating and his team’s second behind Zach Pascal (0.64). Pittman should be popular in the Baltimore heavy stacks as well as a “bring back” option, and that should place him among the most popular players on the slate overall.

Value games, pivots and punts

Justin Tucker ($ 9,000): If there has ever been a game to use a kicker in a single game format, it might be this one. The low total of 46.5 points implies a slow pace that should limit FanDuel points for offensive players, and two of the NFL’s top kickers are in this contest. Tucker not only has the longest goal in NFL history at this point, but has over 89.0 percent accuracy in each of the past six seasons. Rodrigo Blankenship ($ 8,500) also had an 86.5% accuracy last season, and he’s 7 for 8 on the young season. In a game with a higher total and pace, kickers would be prohibited, but in this particular script it might be okay, especially in gambling.

Sammy Watkins ($ 7,500): Dollar for dollar, Watkins is the best value game on the slate. His use is huge for that salary, as he has seen at least seven targets in all four games this season. At 25.0% of overall goals, Watkins has so far surpassed Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown in passing volume, but he has yet to score to boost his FanDuel point total. Watkins saw six deep targets and two red zone targets, however, making it seem like it’s only a matter of time before he finds any dirt. Also playing at 81.7% of snaps, no one in this salary area comes close to its projection.

Mo Alie-Cox ($ 7,000): While scoring twice a week will likely inflate its popularity there, the tight shots of Indianapolis lean towards Alie-Cox. Jack doyle only played 29.9% of Week 4 snaps after playing a record 73.8% of Week 2 snaps. Alie-Cox saw the opposite, as his share of Week 4 snap ( 68.7%) was his best score of the season. The other two weeks, the two played roughly half of the snaps. Assuming both are perfectly healthy, as the injury report indicates, the best bet is to rely on the most recent data, and that likely means that Alie-Cox – who has the highest cap. athletically high – continues to see more work in the passing game. .

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